The NFL Optimizer: What you need to know for the playoffs
- by admin
When we last checked in on the NFL’s best and worst team-by-team ratings, we found the best and most balanced ratings for each team were based on their performance on a neutral field.
With the playoff season upon us, we decided to take a look at what we can learn from each of the five divisions.
First, let’s take a closer look at the NFL divisional ratings.
Each divisional ranking reflects the best/worst performance from the previous week in each of those five divisions, along with the average of all the teams’ ratings.
For example, the AFC North’s ratings are based on the league’s average of its last five games.
The NFC North’s rankings are based solely on the results of the last four games, and the AFC West’s rankings don’t reflect how the teams performed the previous weekend.
In each division, the ratings for all five teams have been weighted equally, with the top three teams receiving the most weight.
The NFC East, for example, received a combined 15.6% weight in the NFC East’s ratings and 15.9% weight overall, which means it is the only division with a combined rating of 16.4.
This gives the division the highest weight in its respective division, with no division coming close to matching the league average.
The AFC South got a combined 11.5%, the AFC East got a total of 11.6%, and the NFC West got a whopping 12.4%.
While the NFC North has the lowest ratings in the league, the division is actually fairly balanced overall.
The New York Jets, for instance, received an average rating of 14.1 in the division.
That’s a little lower than the league mean, but still more than the team’s average rating, which is 15.8.
The Carolina Panthers, however, only got a rating of 13.5.
That means they’re actually closer to the average than the other four teams in their division.
Next, let me show you how each division’s ratings compare to the league as a whole.
The table below compares each division by total points scored, which includes the average points scored per game in the four-game slate each team played, and also adjusts for the number of games each team has played.
Each team is also weighted according to how many games each division has played this year.
The table below shows each division-by itself.
The team with the highest overall rating in each division is the top ranked team, and those who have been outscored are shown in green.
Each division also has its own section, which provides information on how the team ranked in that division did on the week in question.
Here are the AFC divisions’ ratings as of Friday, October 20.
The lowest rating in the AFC is the Indianapolis Colts, with an average of 12.2 points.
The AFC North got the lowest overall rating of any division, which translates to an average score of 12 points.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, the No. 1 ranked team in the NFL, scored a rating that’s 11.4 points lower than their league mean.
The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team in that group that has an average below 12.1.
Here’s the NFC divisional rankings as of Thursday, October 19.
The No. 2 ranked team is the Atlanta Falcons, with a score of 10.9 points.
That gives the NFC the highest rating of the division, and gives the team with a lower rating the No, 3 slot.
The two NFC East teams, New England and Detroit, scored 10.6 points each, meaning the two teams that have been below the league median are the No., 2 and No. 3 teams in the conference.
The top-ranked team in each NFC division is, of course, the New York Giants.
The Giants scored a total score of 9.9, meaning they have the second highest average of any team in their respective division.
The top-rated team in every NFC division, in fact, is the Carolina Panthers.
The bottom-ranked and No-ranked teams are, of the two, the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers scored a score that’s 9.8, which, along the way, gives them the lowest average of the league.
The Panthers are the lowest rated team in any division.
The second-lowest average for any team is Jacksonville Jaguars, with its average score just 9.5 points.
That brings the NFC’s teams in a tie for the lowest rating of all time.
The Dallas Cowboys have the lowest, at just 9 points.
While the division averages and teams’ rating scores aren’t the same, the bottom two teams in each conference are close enough to have an average, according to our formula.
The highest-rated and No.-rated teams are in the same situation as the lowest-rated teams in all three divisions, with each division having a slightly higher average score.
The other interesting thing to note is
When we last checked in on the NFL’s best and worst team-by-team ratings, we found the best and most balanced…